You better buckle up because this is gonna be a long one.
Scenario 1:
Bob and Ted live 4 blocks from each other and have identical homes. Bob and Ted both list their homes for sale, Bob lists his home at $155,000 and Ted lists his at $160,000. Bob sells his home to Karl for $150,000 with $4000 back to Karl for closing costs (essentially selling for $146,000). This benefits Karl in possibly two ways, he gets a $155,000 home for $5000 less and he gets $4000 in closing costs, basically it saves him $9000. But he ensures that the value of his newly purchased home is only $146,000, thus putting him already $4000 underneath his home in an already bad housing market, and he’s counting on someone else to raise the value of his newly purchased home.
Later Ryan makes an offer on Ted’s home for $146,000. Ryan is using Bobs recent sale as a comparison and claiming that Ted’s home is only worth $146,000. Now by simple appraisal tactics Ryan is correct, when the appraisal comes in they will use Bob’s sale as the comparison and Ted’s home will be valued at $146,000(ish).
What should Ted do? Don’t budge Ted, don’t budge.
Scenario 2:
Bob and Ted and Larry live 4 blocks from each other and have identical homes. They all list their homes for sale, Bob lists his home at $155,000 and Ted lists his at $160,000, Larry also lists his home at $155,000. Bob sells his home for $150,000 with $4000 back to the buyer for closing costs. We’ve already discussed how this “benefits” the buyer. Jim then offers $146,000 on Ted’s home with the reasoning that Bob’s identical home only sold for $146,000.
Ted then counters the offer at $155,000 coming down $5000 from his original listed price. Jim being an economically wise man accepts Teds offer and they begin the contract proceedings, the appraisal is done and comes in at $150,000. At this point Jim could back out of this deal and not lose anything, but as we said Jim is an economically wise person and he presses on. Jim has $15,000 available for a down payment on his home so he gets a mortgage for $140,000 and puts the $15,000 down.
Now you are thinking, well that’s stupid why did Jim pay that much for a home he knew was barely worth $150,000. The answer is, Jim is thinking ahead and not just about the here and now.
Suppose Ted sold his house for the original $146,000 that Jim offered, what would this do to Larry’s home value? it would drive it down, and not only Larry’s home value but Jims new home value is now only $146,000. By accepting Ted’s counter offer and coming up with the cash to put down Jim’s new home (Ted’s old home) is now valued at exactly $155,000 (you see the value of a home is determined by the buyer not the appraiser, the appraiser is just trying to get close) furthermore Larry’s home value is now on the rise because the NEW comparison is Jim’s new home. Who cares about Larry’s home you say, Jim should only be worried about himself. Well he is, you see by putting down $15,000 on his new home Jim now has that much equity in his home, he didn’t “spend” the $15,000 on a home he “invested” it in something that despite the bad economy will likely bounce back and be worth more in the future. Furthermore, if Larry can now sell his home at $155,000 it then solidifies even more the value of Jim’s new home. To summarize, Jim’s seemingly “foolish” purchase has benefited him in multiple ways
- His new home is worth exactly what he paid for it
- he has $15,000 equity in his new home
- he has a lower mortgage payment because he invested cash
- he has raised the value of homes around him which in turn should raise the value of his home when sold.
Can you imagine what would have happened if Ted had sold his home at the original $146,000? it would make Larry’s price much more difficult to come by and when Larry sells his home at the same price as the other two the housing market continues to fall.
Conclusion
It seems we live in a world where everyone is waiting for someone else to fix the economy. The Government can’t fix it by throwing money at it. That word “stimulate” is just that, it’s intended to be a shot in the arm, if you want the economy to turn around start making wise investments, the housing market will bounce back but it can do it a whole lot quicker if there are more Jim’s in this world. And when the housing market bounces back so does the rest of the economy.
Tags: Economics, Economy, Housing, Investments, Real Estate
0